
Source: cision | Published on: Friday, 11 July 2025
CLARK, N.J., July 11, 2025 -- GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — jumped to -0.17 in June, from -0.46 in May, its highest in 2025 as worldwide supply chain activity picked up despite the 10% tariffs imposed by the US administration.
For the first time in more than two years, European manufacturers operated at full tilt, driven by front-loaded orders from US customers, and a rebound in both domestic and export demand, particularly across Germany.
In North America, demand for inputs surged as U.S. manufacturers moved quickly to secure inputs – commodities, parts, components and raw materials – ahead of a potential end to the current tariff pause.
Asia's supply chains also showed signs of recovery, with stronger activity in India, Japan, and South Korea. However, spare capacity remains across Southeast Asia, where factory purchasing continues to lag, notably in China.
Notably, there is no evidence in the data of cost inflation escalating dramatically, despite the tariffs.
"In June, Europe shook off its long slump and global supply chains ran at full capacity — despite the uncertainty and on-and-off again tariffs," said John Piatek, VP, Consulting, GEP. "But under the surface, companies are putting in place contingencies: stockpiling inputs, reshaping supplier networks, near-shoring operations, and securing supply chain financing."
Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
JUNE 2025 REGIONAL KEY FINDINGS
JUNE 2025 KEY FINDINGS
For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.
Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact economics@spglobal.com.
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, Aug. 12, 2025.
About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global's PMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global. For more information about the methodology, click here.
About GEP
GEP® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Headquartered in Clark, New Jersey, GEP has offices and operations centers across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas. To learn more, visit www.gep.com.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.
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